10.4122/1.1000001063
Hansen, A. C.
A. C.
Hansen
Liu, L.
L.
Liu
Linde, J. J.
J. J.
Linde
Mark, O.
O.
Mark
Mikkelsen, P. S.
P. S.
Mikkelsen
Accounting for uncertainty in urban drainage system performance assessment using safety factors applied to runoff
DTU Library, Technical University of Denmark (DTU)
2005
Conference presentation
Uncertainty
statistics
Monte Carlo simulations
safety factor
surcharge
pluvial flooding
Technical University Of Denmark, Institute Of Environment
Institute Of Environment
Technical University Of Denmark
DHI Water And Environment
2005
en
10.4122/1.1000001064
text/xml
A crucial step in looking for causes of flooding is a thorough understanding of the uncertainty related to model-based performance assessment of urban drainage systems. This study introduces a methodology for design and analysis of urban drainage systems that takes into account the uncertainties related to the model inputs and parameters. The methodology has the advantage that it can be applied in different stages of the design process irrespective of the complexity of the calculations. For less complex situations the first order analysis of uncertainty is used, while the Monte Carlo method is used for more complex situations. In both cases the uncertainty analysis leads to a safety factor, which can be multiplied by the storm water runoff as part of the design procedure. The safety factor can be calculated for any desired confidence level. The method considers only statistical uncertainties and therefore needs to be further developed.